Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs has lowered its estimate for India's economic growth to 11.1 per cent in fiscal year to March 31, 2022, as a number of cities and states announced lockdowns of varying intensities to check spread of coronavirus infections. India is suffering the world's worst outbreak of COVID-19 cases, with deaths crossing 2.22 lakh and new cases above 3.5 lakh daily. This has led to demand for imposition of nationwide strict lockdowns to stem the spread of the virus - a move that the Modi government has so far avoided after the economic devastation last year from a similar strategy.
Large investors track high-frequency data that is immediately available today. That data has been bullish, points out Debashis Basu.
At this point of time, the requirement of the economy is obviously more investment, which will create more jobs and increase purchasing power that will sustain a high level of production, says K M Chandrasekhar.
BSE Bankex and Telecom indices led the fall.
Little indication of growth surge in either industry or services till well into FY14.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the Indian economy is witnessing a strong recovery after a long and strict lockdown. Addressing a press conference to announce more stimulus measures to boost growth, she said macro-economic indicators are pointing towards recovery. She noted that COVID-19 active cases have declined from over 10 lakh to 4.89 lakh with case fatality rate (CFR) at 1.47 per cent.
'Dr Khobragade is now a Counsellor without any specific work responsibility at the PMI. There is not going to be any work for her at the mission at least for now. This is an interim measure to help her so she can get diplomatic immunity and get over this situation.'
The optimism in global markets could help India as the rebound in GDP is expected to continue and get more broad-based.
The finance ministry on Tuesday cited "green shoots" of recovery in agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors, and said the prompt policy measures taken by the government and RBI have helped reinvigorate the economy with minimal damage. Stating that the agricultural sector remains the foundation of the Indian economy, the ministry said that a normal monsoon, as has been forecast, should support the rebooting of economy.
On the employment front, services employment was unchanged in April.
Financials emerged as the top gainers while auto shares rallied on robust September sales
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry climbed from 49.6 in October to 51.3 in November on the back of a rebound in new orders and output.
Investor sentiment got a boost following remarks from the Russian President Putin that allayed fears of an imminent military conflict in Ukraine
A reading below 50 means contraction in the sector.
Stating that COVID-19 has not yet been contained in India, the rating agency in a statement said the government stimulus package is low relative to countries with similar economic impacts from the pandemic. "The COVID-19 outbreak in India and two months of lockdown -- longer in some areas -- have led to a sudden stop in the economy. That means growth will contract sharply this fiscal year (April 2020 to March 2021)," it said. "Economic activity will face ongoing disruption over the next year as the country transitions to a post-COVID-19 world."
Manufacturing of consumer goods, like food and liquor continued to improve in September.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday announced a new job creation scheme by giving subsidy to those establishments that make new hires. The subsidy would be to cover for retirement fund contributions by employees as well as employers for two years, she said. Employees contribution (12 per cent of wages) and employer's contribution (12 per cent of wages) totalling 24 per cent of wages would be given to establishments for two years, she said. Under the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana, every Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO)-registered establishment taking new employees would get this subsidy.
Benchmark indices failed to sustain gains and retreated from day's high dragged primarily by the losses in metals, information technology and bank shares as investors started to book profits in late noon deals. Earlier, markets had scaled fresh all-time highs on the surprise post-budget rate cut by Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The 30-share Sensex ended down 213 points at 29,380 and the 50-share Nifty closed down 74 points at 8,922. Intra-day, Sensex reached the all-time high mark of 30,024.74 while Nifty touched the life-time high level of 9,119.20. In the broader market, both the BSE Midcap index and Smallcap indices, down 1% and 1.2% each underperformed the front-liners. Market breadth in BSE ended negative with 1,882 declines against 1,010 advances. A day after signing an agreement with Finance Ministry on inflation targeting, RBI surprised the markets with an early post-budget repo rate cut of 25 bps (basis points) to 7.5% from 7.75% which was again outside of central bank's scheduled policy review meetings as the earlier rate cut effected on January 15. "RBI's latest rate cut of 25 basis points, while a surprise in its timing is in-line with our expectations of a sharp rate-cutting cycle over the coming quarters. With inflation sustainably lower by 500bps, the RBI has in recent months acknowledged the scope for rate cuts and was only waiting for additional comfort that the government's fiscal policy would not play spoil-sport," said Dinesh Thakkar, chairman and managing director at Angel Broking in a note. Analysts at Karvy believe that further monetary policy action will depend on number of factors including easing of supply constraints, improved availability of power, land, minerals and infrastructure, fiscal consolidation, the pass through of rate cuts by banks and the expected monsoon. Citing weakness in some sectors of the economy and the overall global trend towards monetary easing as rationale for the rate cut the central bank also exuded confidence in the road map for fiscal consolidation as laid out in the Union Budget, 2015. Commenting on how the markets reacted to RBI's surprise move, K Subramanyam assistant vice-president (institutional research), Asit C. Mehta Securities said, "The unexpected cut did take the market by surprise .However, credit off-take is not dependant only on interest rates. A gradual revival in the economy would be of more help which would trigger credit off-take. Hopefully this will follow and RBI's action would prove helpful. From market point of view this is bullish as equity becomes more attractive vis-a-vis falling interest rates." On the macro-economic front, the HSBC services PMI rose to an eight-month high of 53.9 in February up from 52.4 in January indicating strong expansion in output across the sector. Respondents cited robust growth of new business as the principle factor for the increase in activity. Meanwhile, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 773 crore on Tuesday, as per provisional data. Buzzing Stocks 9 out of the 12 sectoral indices of BSE ended in red. BSE Metal index, down 2.4% was the top loser followed by BSE Oil & Gas and Power indices, down 1.3% each. BSE Healthcare index, up 1.2% and BSE FMCG index, up 0.9% were the top losers. Bank stocks came under during late noon trades as traders booked profits at higher levels. However, RBI rate cut may encourage large lenders to cut their lending rates boosting demand for home and auto loans and provide funds for various stalled and new projects. Many stalled projects across the country are waiting for cash to restart work. The stock of stalled projects at the end of December 2014 stood at Rs 8.8 lakh crore or 7% of GDP. ICICI Bank ended down 0.1%, Axis Bank and SBI declined over 3% and HDFC Bank shed 1.5%. Sun Pharma gained over 6% on approval granted to Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company (SPARC) by US FDA for an antiepileptic drug. The product will be manufactured by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries at its Halol (Gujarat) facility in India. SPARC was formed in 2007 when Sun Pharma separated out its active projects in drug discovery and innovation into a new company. Dr Reddys Lab and Cipla have gained over 1% each. ITC gained over 1% after consecutive sessions of losses on the proposed larger-than-expected hike in excise duty on cigarettes in the Union Budget. The biggest ever auction of spectrum by the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) started on Wednesday in the morning where government expects to garner Rs 80,000-1lakh crore from the sale of spectrum. Idea Cellular gained over 2%, Reliance Communication gained around 1% and Bharti Airtel closed 0.5% higher. Metal stocks were under pressure in today's session. Hindalco declined over 3%, Sesa Sterliteended down over 4% and Tata Steel closed down 2%. Profit-taking in IT stocks led to Wipro losing around 1.8%, Infosys declining 0.7% and TCS losing 1.5%.
UN economists announced a likely USD 50 billion drop in the worldwide manufacturing exports in February alone as the extent of the damage to the global economy caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) moved further into focus. Citing the China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), Pamela Coke-Hamilton, who heads UNCTAD's Division on International Trade and Commodities, said that it had fallen to 37.5 -- a drop of about 20 points -- the lowest reading since 2004. "This also correlates directly to exports and also implies a two per cent drop in overall exports," she said, with a resulting "ripple effect" worldwide "to the tune of a USD 50 billion fall in exports."
India's private sector activity contracted further in August, reflecting faster contractions of both manufacturing and services output, amid decline in new orders and tough economic conditions.
The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers Index for the services industry inched up to 47.2 in November from 47.1 in October, the fifth sub-50.0 reading and indicated an output contraction across the Indian service economy.
'We expect the Reserve Bank of India to deliver a 25 bps rate cut in April to support growth.'
The S&P BSE Sensex ended 46 points lower at 24,824 and Nifty50 settled at 7,555, down by 8 points after hitting intra-day high of 7,600.45.
The minutes of the December MPC meet reveal members felt the current spike in the headline inflation rate was due to a temporary supply shock on the food front, expected to moderate by the second quarter of 2020-21.
China had been trying hard to enter the Indian market, without opening its own to Indian products. There is an economic crisis in India-China relations that the Chennai Connect barely scratched the surface, points out Srikanth Kondapalli.
Investors have been hoping for a cyclical recovery.
There is a strong case for 25 basis points cut in interest rates.
Market sentiment suffered a jolt after other Asian markets closed with widespread losses and European markets dropped in early trade
Growth in the eight core sectors jumped to 8.5% in April, due to a sharp pick-up in refinery products and a commensurate rise in electricity generation.
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Likely to set the ball rolling for Rs 1.72-lakh-cr projects today
Indian economy grew 7.9% in March quarter and recorded a five-year high growth rate of 7.6% for the 2015-16 fiscal
The economy could return to 8% growth by the end of 2017-2018, says Arvind Panagariya, vice-chairman NITI Aayog.
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The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, sank to 50.6 in June from 51.3 in May, signalling the weakest increase in output since May, 2009.
The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, inched up to 50.4 in April, from 50.3 in March, signalling only a marginal increase in output across global emerging markets in April.
C Rangarajan, chairman, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council tells Business Standard that the measures taken by the government will lead to economic growth of at least 6 per cent in FY14 against a decadal-low growth of 5 per cent in FY13.
TCS, Bajaj Auto, Adani Ports and Cipla were the top gainers on BSE Sensex while Coal India, GAIL, Dr Reddy's and Infosys lost the most on the index.
Shares of L&T Technology Services, an arm of engineering giant Larsen and Toubro, made a decent debut on the bourses
GDP growth in November is the second-highest since January 2012 when it had expanded 5.7%.
Coal India topped the losers' list in the Sensex pack on Tuesday, falling 2.36 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel at 2.16 per cent.
ONGC, Sesa Sterlite, Tata Steel, RIL and HDFC emerged as the biggest losers
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